·2015 pattern and trend (middle): "The market will force you to be rational"

Through the magical 2014, carnival and sad songs, good fortune and embarrassment, with this fear and unknown ushered in the gradual easing of 2015, if 2011 is a turning point from high growth to micro growth, then 2014 is Crazy to rational excess. Are you irrational? Nothing, the market will teach you - with rules and whipping.

Wei Jinqiao / Wen

"2015 does not rule out the possibility of 'zero growth', passenger cars may still have some growth, but commercial vehicles will continue to decline." On the evening of January 9, outside the Beijing Performing Arts Center, the vice president of Dongfeng Manager Liu Weidong and several of his subordinates have just left the scene of the Dongfeng Peugeot 508 conference, and Beijing at night, the wind is biting.

In 2014, Dongfeng Peugeot and Shenlong Automobile set another new height and record. It is not only the only joint venture company in China that has achieved the target of two sales targets, but also the fastest-growing joint venture brand in 2014. .

In 2004, this was not the case. This year, Shenlong Automobile exposed a huge loss of 540 million yuan, and set about a huge layoff plan of more than 1,000 people. Liu Weidong, the general manager who had just been in the past year, was forced to be overwhelmed by shareholders, suppliers and employees. In the past ten years, although Bohai has not become a sangtian, Shenlong has become one of the fastest growing joint ventures for three consecutive years. “Recalling the past, I am very grateful to the five years from 2004 to 2008 for bringing us profound lessons. Experience is wealth."

Someone has learned from the experience, and more, still taking lessons. "If you don't respect the market, the market will punish you in its own way." At the end of 2014, Hainan, Volvo China sales company president Fu Qiang said that from FAW-Volkswagen to Beijing Benz, from Changchun to Beijing, then to Shanghai Last year, the man who had just passed the 48-year-old birth year saw the wind and rain. This is not only a simple market universal rule, but also a growth and sentiment after the experience of people and things. This year, Volvo sold 81,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, completely reversed the passiveness of 2012.

In 2014, frequent personnel changes, the ups and downs of the channel uprising, the turbulent media circle and some of the car companies that were unable to support, formed a vivid car ecosystem.

Based on the sales of 23.5 million units in 2014, where will 2015 go?

It is certain that due to the unfinished economic restructuring of China, the weak manufacturing industry, the sluggish consumption of large consumer goods and the fundamental improvement of the external economic environment, we expect that the annual growth rate of automobiles will be lower than the GDP growth.

The positive factor is that the market is collectively denying irrational prosperity. At the beginning of the new year, major manufacturers have abandoned the unreachable sales targets, from luxury brands to local brands, and have begun to carefully set rational and pragmatic annual goals. The industrial chain of scars has long been unable to support double-digit growth. Once rational return, madness returns, a healthy, reasonable and sustainable 2015 is a promising period.

Broken value chain

“The 2015 auto market is not optimistic at all, and does not rule out the possibility of negative growth.” On the evening of January 9, Liu Weidong told the reporter that “First of all: Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai have all been restricted, and the demonstration effect is too obvious. Since 2014, the assessment mechanism of local governments has changed, and there are no better measures for environmental protection indicators. There is only one limit. It is estimated that at least 10 cities will implement various purchase restriction measures this year, and the purchase restriction will start to the economically developed second-tier cities. Secondly, the economic environment is uncertain. This is the direct driving force of the auto market. Consumers are holding money for purchase. In addition, the third- and fourth-line markets that have driven the growth of the auto market since 2012 have begun to slow down in the second half of 2014, while the traditional first and second lines The market has grown by a small amount since 2012."

Liu Weidong has enough reason to be cautious because the foundation of optimism is no longer there. The third quarter of 2014 was a turning point. The anti-monopoly investigation and parallel import policy measures and the pressure of the host factory's strong pressure sales, the auto market began to show a rapid decline channel in August, the price war that was first provoked by luxury brands was transferred to the ordinary layer by layer. The brand caused a chain reaction in the auto market, and the volume and price of the auto market fell in the fourth quarter.

The anti-water incident of BMW dealers started in November 2014 is the emergence of the collapse of the auto industry's ecological chain. FAW Toyota has lowered its annual production and sales targets twice, and Dongfeng Nissan and Great Wall Motors abandoned their annual sales targets after October. A series of events began to motivate the entire industry to think deeply.

How to correctly understand the automotive market and the environment after 2015? How to rationally understand the risks and opportunities facing the market? These thoughts began to be reflected directly in the 2015 sales targets announced by major OEMs.

At the beginning of January, Shenlong Automobile first announced its annual sales target for 2015: 800,000 vehicle production and sales, including 350,000 Dongfeng Citroen brand and 450,000 Dongfeng Peugeot brand. This target is 700,000 units sold by Shenlong Automobile in 2014. The target is 100,000 more vehicles. This is the lowest increase in the sales target of Shenlong Automobile since 2010. On almost the same day, Beijing Hyundai announced its 2015 sales target of 1.16 million units, which is only 1.12 million units compared with 2014. More than 40,000 units were sold.

The most conservative is FAW-Volkswagen. The 2014 new champion has carefully set the 2015 sales target at 1.85 million units. Compared with the terminal sales of 1.82 million units in 2014, it only increased by 30,000 units, a slight increase of 2.33% compared with 2014. . Compared with the previous 2 million targets of 2015 released by Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM, FAW-Volkswagen's goal is extremely conservative.

As of February, most manufacturers are still waiting to see whether they are reporting their annual targets, especially those dealers who are struggling in 2014, and are also anxiously calculating their inventory and New Year's sales targets.

From 2 million in 2000 to 23.5 million in 2014, the 15-year development of the Chinese auto market is marked by 2011. The average growth rate in the first 12 years has reached an astonishing 25%. From 2012 to 2014, the average growth rate in three years. It has slipped to around 8%.

In 2015, it may be another turning point. On the one hand, as the rationality of the market becomes mainstream, major manufacturers will gradually lower their market expectations. The previous sales growth plan of more than 20% will gradually be abandoned, rational and sustainable growth. The goal will be the mainstream of future development.

Compared with Liu Weidong's overall pessimism and prudence, our judgment is more optimistic. It is expected that the passenger vehicle market will maintain an increase of about 5% in 2014 compared with 2014, but the commercial vehicle market will further shrink.

The main task in the first quarter was to destock. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the situation of volume and price decline will be alleviated, and the sales volume will continue to decline, but the terminal transaction price will rise month by month. The second quarter of this year will be a turning point in the market. The compact SUV, seven large and medium-sized SUVs and the entry-level “micro-transformation” MPV will continue to bear the momentum of market growth.

New balance

In "2014: Patterns and Trends", "Automobile Commune" proposed that the Chinese auto market needs to rebalance in 2014, which is not only a rebalancing between independent brands and joint ventures, but also a unique virtue. The rebalancing between the Department and the non-German system, the former is related to the lifeline and future of Chinese local brands, while the latter is related to the ecological balance of the Chinese automobile industry chain.

But there seems to be nothing to stop the continued leadership of Volkswagen. I remember in 2013, I wrote, "In addition to the unpredictable policy and political risks, Volkswagen has no rivals in China." In 2014, the market once believed that the Japanese brands after the Diaoyu Islands political storm had The opportunity has once again become a balancing force against the powerful German doubles. Whether it is the "DSG Incident" that frequently failed in 2013 or the "Sagitar Breaking" incident that swept the country in 2014, it has not changed the Chinese trajectory of the car giant that is about to reach the top of the world.

In 2015, Volkswagen will continue to maintain more than the overall market growth. In this year, North and South Volkswagen once again entered the intensive product launch period, FAW Volkswagen plans to launch the first Volkswagen brand SUV, and Shanghai Volkswagen based on the A-class brand The extended products will be more than ever.

In October 2014, the local brand stopped turning and the turning point, local brands continued to struggle. The good news is that the total number of micro-MPV markets represented by Wuling Hongguang and Baojun 730 is rapidly increasing; secondly, the new SUVs of local brands are frequent, and the market gap has not been entered in foreign brands, completing the market layout and almost becoming Supporting the only strength of local brands in 2014 to avoid collective collapse.

In 2015, what do local brands rely on to support the future? Or does the local brand still have a future? Undoubtedly, under the overall situation of the overall downward trend of the market, the market share of local brands will continue to decline. Although the demonstration effect of government procurement and bus reform will gradually appear in 2015, these benefits will only benefit more. A few local companies with better quality and higher-level products, such as GAC Passenger Car, Great Wall Motor and Shanghai Auto, and two central enterprises, FAW and Dongfeng, are affected by the cold market, and more and more vulnerable local brands will accelerate. In the year of 2015, the news that the youth lotus car exposed at the end of 2014 was not paid out was only a lot.

In the first half of 2014, there were short-term recovery of Japanese autos. The outlook for 2015 is difficult. It has hit 1 million failed Dongfeng Nissan for three consecutive years. It is difficult to achieve market reversal with its strong system power, let alone the fragile Honda. And Mazda?

The booming Changan Ford not only quickly recovered from the 2013 Wing Tiger Broken Axis incident, but also hit a new height of 800,000 in 2014. For the third consecutive year, Fox won the China Single Brand Sales Champion. Mondeo is among the mid- to high-end cars. The top five sales, and the ranking in the value list exceeds the sales of Camry, the new large and medium-sized SUV sharp released during the 2014 Guangzhou Auto Show and the new mid-to-high-end car Taurus domestically produced, all of which indicate: Ford in China not only changed the trend of a few years ago, but also has a lot of stamina.

However, the worry of the supply chain revealed by Ford Motor through the wing tiger off-axis incident is worth noting. A fast-growing brand will inevitably lead to irrational growth and expansion of the entire system, and Ford’s supply chain capability in China will be Changan Ford. In the next few years, it will catch up with Beijing Modern, Dongfeng Nissan and the top three obstacles.

Hyundai Motor has deliberately slowed down in 2014. Although the Dongfeng Yueda Kia in September exposed more than 100 dealers to stop the extreme events such as picking up the car, it will not change Hyundai Kia to continue to be the biggest beneficiary after the absence of Japanese. The fact that, in fact, Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Yueda Kia launched more than 10 products since 2009, in addition to the failure of i30 and soul, the rest of the products, amazing success, this is the foundation of the modern Kia in China five years fast The basis for growth.

"You are not rational, the market will force you to be rational"

“It took us more than ten years to really learn to build a car.” From 2013 to 2014, Yin Tongyue, like Xianglin, and the media repeatedly took advantage of the ongoing changes in Chery Automobile, which was launched in July 2013. Arrizo 7 to the popular Tiggo 5/3 brothers in 2014, Chery Automobile is in painful reincarnation on the road of transformation.

Fortunately, when the Arrizo 7 was launched in the summer of 2013, the heavy rain did not pour the enthusiasm of Chery. In the second half of 2014, Chery Automobile bravely announced its return.

In the summer of more than ten years ago, when I first carried the bag and knocked on the door of the sales company of No. 8 Changchun Road, Wuhu, Zhang Chen was still a little girl who had just graduated. From 2003, Sun Yong joined the senior management of the media to take over the position of Huang Huaqiong in 2014. Yin Tongyue used up to seven managers with different backgrounds and different resumes to take charge of the general manager of the new Chery Automobile Sales. In other words, Chery Automobile and Yin Tongyue spent more than 10 years exploring and understanding the hardships of making a car until the years passed until he was white.

He used "making a car is actually climbing a mountain, Chery car first climbed to the mountainside, so it first felt the lack of oxygen and taste" to describe the journey of making cars, the first to feel the danger of Chery, and not from 2009 to 2011 The rapid growth of the market temptation to pull out, continue to use the wrong way to collide with the gradual rational market, until the market quickly in 2012, forced to think rationally.

Wei Jianjun and Xu Liuping are more acutely aware of the pressures and risks facing the market. Two different models of local companies have used almost the same way to deal with the market risks that may be encountered after 2012 – focusing on quality and returning to products. Great Wall Motor and Changan Automobile have grown against each other for several consecutive years from 2012 to 2014.

Li Chunrong, general manager of Dongfeng Fengshen, summarized the development of independent brands into a “three-wheeled model”: through three generations of products, about 10 years later, independent brands will truly understand the essence of manufacturing, product quality, reliability and basic capabilities. The basic standard for building a car, but even the current Great Wall and Changan, the quality of its products can only be used in the first two years of joint venture products, the actual gap is bigger than expected.

This may be the real answer to the local brand “12 consecutive declines” from October 2013 to September 2014. Before 2011, no one could resist this irrational excitement brought by the market blowout.

To be sure, local brands are still sad in 2015. Just as we described and predicted in 2014: Patterns and Trends, Great Wall Motors has continued its rapid growth for five years, although the Haval H6 continues to hit a new high, but the sedan The decline of the market and the jump of the H8, supporting the rapid growth of the Great Wall Motor, is no longer.

Changan Automobile will also face tremendous pressure in 2015. The three-year high-density new product launch will come to an end in 2011. After a variety of products in the core market, it will become the most tested Changan automobile system in the next three years. Direct chips. A subtle detail revealed Changan Automobile's concern that in the last month of 2014, the sales of the two best-selling products, CS35 and CS75, were quietly hidden and put into 2015.

SAIC that can't slow down

After the Thunderstorm of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, FAW and Dongfeng spent an uneasy New Year. "After this incident, the group will be more cautious in the future. SAIC's leading position is even more difficult to shake." A familiar Dongfeng executive communicated privately.

In 2011, Dongfeng released the “Dan D300” medium-term business plan, which will usher in the year of closing in 2015. Dongfeng Company has surpassed the market growth for three consecutive years, but compared with SAIC’s bravery, the pace of catching up with Dongfeng has already been exhausted.

There has always been a saying in the market: "The number of cadres in the 1950s was FAW, the cadres in the 1960s saw Dongfeng, and the cadres in the 1970s were SAIC." The FAW people represented by the director of Shao Shaojie created the glory of FAW in the 1980s and 1990s. After 2002, the Dongfeng Shaozuo executives who have embarked on the core level have achieved the glory of Dongfeng Company, which was carried forward before 2002, but only SAIC has seized the development opportunities for 30 consecutive years. Volkswagen project, Shanghai GM was established in the 1990s, and GM acquired the acquisition of Liuzhou Wuling in the early 21st century. The three joint ventures completed the miracles of 1.73 million, 1.72 million and 1.8 million in 2014, respectively. The basis of the market.

Compared with sales, SAIC has a greater advantage in talents. Many of them have been in charge of various sub-sections since 2010, and since 1980, they have become directors in manufacturing, technology R&D and marketing systems and sectors since 2013. The backbone force, the talents and executive flow mechanism of different sectors started in 2008, has become the biggest driving force for each sub-block of SAIC, and this is precisely the FAW and Dongfeng two central enterprises that are gradually becoming old-fashioned and too cautious. Soft underbelly.

Since Qi Shaojie, FAW Group has embarked on a rapid decline, not only the market position has been given to SAIC and Dongfeng, but also the rumors of tens of personnel struggles and gangs, if not for Audi's rich profit support, FAW The face has long since disappeared.

From 2005 to 2014, it was the best time to develop Dongfeng's history. It not only achieved the market position from the third place to the second place, but also further expanded the leading position of FAW, although Dongfeng is far from FAW. The system is rigid and the government is thinking. However, in the past ten years, it has also fallen into the self-satisfaction of “want to win and lose” and “think fast and slow”. This is mainly reflected in two aspects. First, the use of talents is conservative, especially for young people. In the system, the second, the sector is divided, the lack of long-term and stable rotation mechanism between different business units, these two points is the most successful place for SAIC.

SAIC Group, which has passed the 6 million mark in 2014, is expected to maintain a growth rate of nearly 10% this year. The two joint ventures, Shanghai GM and Shanghai Volkswagen, are planning to set a threshold of 2 million vehicles. In 2014, 1.8 million vehicles were sold. SAIC-GM-Wuling has also targeted 2 million vehicles in 2015. The sluggish SAIC passenger car business will usher in an intensive new car launch in 2015, which will become a strong driving force for SAIC's own brands.

Dongfeng Company barely completed the sales task of 3.8 million units last year. The market target in 2015 was 4.1 million units. This is an equally conservative sales plan. It is expected that the completion is not difficult. FAW Group has not released its annual sales target, but only The FAW Group, which has a single engine of FAW-Volkswagen, is expected to fail to break through 5% in 2015. Changan’s catch-up is getting closer and closer.