Tire prices: Tire prices continue to bottom, and it is difficult to say reverse in the first half of 2015.
1. Supply exceeds demand is the main driving force for downward prices. After more than 10 years of rapid development, especially in the past two years, after investment in “blowoutsâ€, China’s tires have suffered serious structural excesses regardless of car tires or heavy truck tires, that is, excess mid-to-low-grade homogenized tires, while high-end and green tires remain. There is a gap. Stocks are generally produced in 1.5 to 2 months. The operating rate of tire companies continued to drop and fell to the low level during the year. China's tire concentration is relatively low, the low operating rate and high inventory are easy for companies to prevent the market from pushing prices down each other, leading to downward focus on prices.
2. There is still some room for price drop. The price of natural rubber dropped from nearly 36,000 yuan/ton in May 2011 to nearly 13,000 yuan/ton now, a drop of up to 63.9%. In the same period, tire prices also showed a downward trend, car tire price index fell 25.5%, truck tire price index fell 30.98% 0 natural rubber accounted for nearly 50% of total tire costs, from the tire cost composition analysis, China's car tire prices are still about 5% Falling space, truck tires have a relatively small drop space, about 1% to 2%. This is also the main reason that the recent decline in the price of car tires is significantly greater than that of truck tires.
3. The price decline will continue for some time. The transfer of rubber and other raw material costs to the downstream tire industry has a certain time lag. From the traditional experience, this time difference is more than six months. Now the rubber continues to bottom out, at most in the bottom area, and rubber prices have yet to show signs of reversing. According to empirical calculations, it takes more than six months for China’s tire prices to stabilize or increase. Although with the arrival of the traditional Spring Festival, traffic and transportation peaked, the demand for tires increased, and the decline in tire prices will decrease, but the decline is still the main tone.
In summary, the general trend of the price of passenger tires in China is expected to decline by 5% to 10%, depending on the “double reverse†situation in the United States. The price of truck tires will continue to decline slightly, at a rate of about 2%, which is close to the bottom. Tire prices are reversed and optimism is expected to occur in the second half of next year.
Tire Products: Tire New Products are continuously introduced, and technology added value becomes the main competitiveness of products
According to the release of this year's major exhibitions and tire companies, tire companies in 2015 will gradually launch new tires for market segments. Michelin's self-repairing tires, for example, have also been confirmed to land on the market in 2015, while Michelin Tweel's pneumatic tires are in volume production. Bridgestone, in addition to airless tires, also introduced narrow tire technology – which is a technology that runs counter to airless. With regard to the efforts made by domestic tire companies in the research and development in 2014, domestic tire companies will also compete fiercely with foreign tire companies in the original and replacement markets in 2015, such as Fengshen Tire, Linglong Tire, and Double Gun Tires. Although there is still a gap between domestic tire product technology and foreign companies, in view of its development process, domestic tire companies can achieve greater progress in 2015.
Tire e-commerce: E-commerce is still hot, online solutions to solve price problems
Tire e-commerce fever will continue to rise in 2015, but due to fewer types of online tires, and the installation and service problems have not been resolved, the active cooperation of online manufacturers and offline installations will be positive in 2015. Carry out. However, the problem that comes with it is that more and more tires merchants have entered the e-commerce platform, and the price war in the e-commerce field will become more intense. Whether it is e-commerce, manufacturers or distributors, the seamless integration of “online, offline, and offline†integration will be the direction in which efforts will be needed in 2015.
Tire Dealers: Reduced Product Advantages and Services Become Key to Success
Profitability is the top priority, and dealers who traded tires in 2015 should stop.
In 2015, tire dealers will have closer ties with manufacturers, but due to lower tire prices and increasing competitive pressures, dealers will earn less and less profit from tire products alone. Secondly, due to the development of tire electricity providers, online and offline cooperation and win-win model will become a good choice for dealers and retailers. Third, as the profit brought by tire products to dealers is reduced and the potential of the automotive aftermarket continues to expand, adding service content and enriching product categories will become a trend for tire dealers and retailers in the future. Fourth, tire dealers need to increase their influence in the channel through media and social interaction platforms.
Tire manufacturers: survival of the fittest, manufacturers will "big fish" eat "small fish"
At present, the tire factory can be roughly divided into three levels; the first echelon is controlled by international giants such as Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear, and the second echelon is an internationally competitive brand such as Gitton and Toyo. , Hankook, etc. The third echelon is a relatively domestic factory with some history such as Fengshen, Taikaiying, Double Money and other factories; the other fourth echelon is the manufacturer of some rising stars, especially the factory workshop represented by Shandong Dongying. .
In terms of market trends, the phenomenon of big fish in the tire industry is inevitable. Usually there may be several forms: mergers and acquisitions (who can't say who will buy, it will certainly disappear); some factories are foundries (similar to OEM); some even become wholesalers' foundries; mutual holdings ( For instance, Jinyu and Shengtai exchange their shares, etc.)
The overall trend of the tire industry in 2015 and in the future
In 2015, tire sales will shift from high prices and high gross margins to low-cost and high-occupancy; many traditional channels and businesses will disappear due to future changes; the integration of business and finance, integration of business and trade, and service marketing will be the main ways of profitability. Some experts predict that the channel level of big brands will be further reduced, and the value of retailers will be further enhanced because of the strong appeal of the brand among consumers and the support of distribution and installation services by numerous brand distributors nationwide. The vendor-led e-commerce platform will develop faster. At the same time, the type of tire trading service platform will also have great opportunities for development. Because there are many brands of Chinese tire manufacturers, weak brands can only survive and develop by drastically shortening channel links. At the same time, this also provides opportunities for the intermediary platform.
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