China's agricultural transformation needs to pass the food surplus reserve

[China Agricultural Machinery Industry News] A certain grain reserve is the basis for market regulation and regulation. At present, the big problem in China's grain reserves or stocks is that the outbound storage is not smooth, the inventory is getting bigger and bigger, and the throughput adjustment function cannot be effectively played. At present, China's grain reserve rate has reached 83.2%, far exceeding the 17%-18% safety reserve level set by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

China's agricultural transformation needs to pass the food surplus reserve

The amount of inventory, like the “slugged lake” that hangs above the agricultural industry, is a hurdle that China’s agricultural transformation cannot be circumvented anyway.

Excess reserves bring three major problems. First, the financial burden is heavy. The grain surplus reserve brings various financial burdens. There are various subsidies in the production process. There are huge storage facilities construction costs and storage costs in the circulation link. In addition, there are loss subsidies for grain storage. Excessive production also brings ecological damage. And the decline in production capacity requires financial input to restore the ecological environment and restore soil fertility. Based on an annual inventory cost of 250 yuan per ton of grain, 520 million tons of inventory will cost 130 billion yuan per year. This expenditure is not the same as the actual consumption power and production capacity of the subsidies to farmers. The inventory custodian expenditure is dissipated invisible. Second, the price of agricultural products has been weak for a long time. Such a large inventory, accompanied by every clearing of the warehouse, will have a huge impact on the agricultural product market, in the long run it is not conducive to the safety of the agricultural industry. Third, the poor quality of the warehouse brings quality and safety risks. With the decline in grain prices and the gradual listing of new grains, the grain-agricultural enterprises have become more and more wait-and-see, and the auction volume has gradually declined. The probability of aging grain and mildew and low-quality grain has increased greatly, posing a hidden danger to food safety. From this perspective, China is facing the dilemma of more and more insecure inventory. Therefore, China needs to seriously study the issue of food stocks. How much is suitable for stocks. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has set a safety reserve level of 17% to 18%. It is not safe to be too high or too low. Considering that China's main sales area and balance area have not solved the food security problem, we can add another insurance to the reserve level set by the United Nations to raise it to a reserve level of 30%. If we consider the central government's extreme attention to food security and geopolitical factors, we will add double insurance to 40%, which is 250 million tons of food. In this way, China's current inventory is more than double this standard. On the issue of food security, as long as the high-standard farmland of 1 billion mu is built well, the agricultural production capacity is well protected, there is an appropriate grain reserve, and it is matched with the adjustment of the international market. The temporary fluctuation of production is totally inadequate. The market can solve it.

Second, how to go to stock. Now when it comes to destocking, it is often to subsidize processing enterprises and promote the transformation of agricultural products processing. This kind of practice will certainly have some effects, but the author believes that it is short-term and cannot solve the problem fundamentally. This method of promoting subsidies through subsidies will transfer the excess state of raw grain to the field of processed products and lead to excess of processed products, so it is a measure to cure the symptoms. De-stocking is destined to be a difficult and painful process. You can't expect a charge to solve it. Basically, you have to control the source. Don't open your mouth again. As mentioned above, the safety level of China's grain stocks is 250 million tons (500 billion jin). If it is rotated every three years, then the annual treasury will receive 170 billion jin of grain. Now we can only reduce the output, change the structure, change the space with time, and gradually digest the excess inventory. The specific measures include: using the current favorable opportunity, returning farmland to forests and grassland on sloping land, changing the use of poisonous land, and rotating the land for good time, to conserve ecology and protect soil fertility, and achieve the goal of reducing production; changing planting structure and actively developing green and healthy , safe, nutritious, delicious high-quality agricultural products; closed operation of Chenhua grain auction to avoid impact on the market; centralized treatment of low-quality grain that is not suitable for consumption and processing, it is strictly prohibited to flow into the market, and the potential loss becomes a loss, reaching one time The purpose of the Qing.

Third, use various means to control imports. In the context of the current domestic grain stocks, we must do everything possible to control grain imports, get time for domestic grain destocking, fight for the environment, and let the domestic market have a chance to catch a breath. On the control of imports, we are not without cards to play. For example, relevant departments can make a fuss about food import quotas and the pace of import licenses; business, quality inspection and other departments can use some technical means to appropriately restrict imports of sorghum, barley, DDGS, etc.; agriculture, quality inspection and other departments can Some articles on the safety testing of genetically modified agricultural products; the commercial sector should immediately initiate trade remedy investigations, and some industries in China have been damaged to a very serious extent; customs, public security and other departments must fully combat food smuggling and raise awareness to protect farmers' interests. And the security of the agricultural industry is highly regarded on the issue of food smuggling.