In 2014, the US government's comprehensive ban on the production and import of incandescent lamps was officially in force. Canada also officially banned 75W and 100W incandescent lamps from January 1, 2014, while 40 and 60W bulbs will be fully banned on December 31, 2014. The European Union has also banned the sale of incandescent lamps in 2012. In 2014, the incandescent lamp phase-out plan for major countries and regions in the world took effect in batches.
The incandescent lamp ban plan is conducive to the full opening of the LED lighting market. From 2013 to 2014, major countries and regions around the world began to ban or will begin to ban the sale of incandescent lamps. The three largest markets in China, the European Union and the United States are likely to double in 2014. Due to the government's policy of eliminating incandescent lamps, the global LED lighting penetration rate will reach the fastest in 2014.
Due to energy conservation and emission reduction considerations, various countries have developed a roadmap for the elimination of incandescent lamps, and gradually banned the production and sale of incandescent lamps. The US government enacted a bill in 2007 that the United States will phase out incandescent lamps in three steps: the first step is to eliminate 100W incandescent lamps in 2012; the second step is to further phase out 75W incandescent lamps by 2013, third. Since January 1, 2014, all incandescent lamps have been completely banned. Canada also officially banned 75W and 100W incandescent lamps from January 1, 2014, while 40 and 60W bulbs will be fully banned on December 31, 2014. The European Union has also banned the sale of incandescent lamps from September 2012. In addition, in mainland China, a roadmap for the elimination of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps has been formulated: from October 2012, the import and sale of incandescent lamps of 100W and above is prohibited. Since October 2014, the import and sale of incandescent lamps of 60W and above has been banned. Lights; from October 2015 to September 2016, the previous policies were evaluated, follow-up policies were adjusted, and in October 2016, the import and sale of incandescent lamps of 15W and above were prohibited. Overall, the main 60W power of the incandescent lamp market will be banned from export and sales in 2014, and the huge LED general lighting market is about to start.
In addition to the global ban, cost reductions drive down the price of terminals, which is also a major factor in the explosion of the lighting market. According to the solid-state lighting manufacturing roadmap released by the US Department of Energy in 2011, the price of OEM and LED packaging for LED lamps fell by 30 per year during the period from 2010 to 2015, and fell by 10 to 15 per year during the period from 2015 to 2020. Effectively pull the demand for LED lamps, and the cost reduction is the endogenous power of LED price decline. There are two driving forces for cost reduction: improved light efficiency and reduced manufacturing costs per unit of product.
An increase in light efficiency means that the same brightness is achieved and less energy is consumed. Light effects can be improved in many ways, such as selecting superior substrate materials and epitaxial materials during epitaxy, and flip-chip soldering applications for chip packaging to allow more light to enter the chip and optimize the design of the module-level optical system. Can reduce the loss of light and so on.
The reduction in manufacturing costs is the cost control of the OEM segment, including reducing the cost of materials and improving manufacturing efficiency. The actual LED chip cost is only a part of the total cost. The chip after 10W bulb lamp packaging accounts for 47% of the total cost, and the chip cost may only account for about 15. The other costs mainly include packaging, heat dissipation, structural parts, and power supply. The reduction in total cost is not only related to the manufacture and packaging of the chip, but also the cost of structural components, heat dissipation, power supply design and manufacturing.
According to Haitz's law of the industry's Moore's Law, the price of LED is 1/10 of the original 10 years, and the performance is 20 times higher. With the increase in efficiency and the increase in shipments, the scale effect will appear, the cost will gradually decline, and the price of LED terminal products will fall to the extent that the public can accept. The general lighting market will open a billion-dollar market, allowing many LED companies benefit.
From the latest surveyed LED bulb retail price, in November 2013, the global replacement of 40 LED bulbs retail price fell by about 2.7, reaching 15.4 US dollars, of which China's inter-regional prices fell sharply 20.6. Replace the traditional 60W incandescent bulbs, The global average price also fell by 0.7 to reach $21.5. Recently, the price of LED lighting has dropped significantly, and the price gap with incandescent lamps has narrowed significantly, laying a good foundation for the prosperity of the LED lighting market in 2014.
The lighting market is fully open, and the next three to four years will be the gold development period of the industry.
Policy support from major global countries and a decline in LED costs are bound to trigger an explosion in the LED general lighting market. The LED lighting market is a large market of 100 billion yuan, which is expected to enable the industry to maintain a wave of 3 to 4 years of large cycle opportunities.
According to data from McKinsey Consulting, the penetration rate of LEDs in general lighting in 2011 will be around 12, the penetration rate will reach 43 in 2016, and the penetration rate will be 64 in 2020. We can calculate that the scale of LED general lighting market in 2011 is about 85. In 2016, the figure will reach about 40 billion US dollars (200 billion yuan), and in 2020 it will be a huge market of about 69 billion US dollars. LED penetration in the general lighting market is still low, LED has a huge room for growth in the general lighting market, and the next three to four years will be the fastest gold development period for LED penetration in the lighting market.
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