Crude bears turn cows and hard to change oil prices

The recent shift in the international crude oil market from a "bear market" to a "bull market" has not changed the "nine consecutive falls" in domestic oil prices this week. The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that this Friday (November 28th) domestic refined oil products will usher in a new round of adjustment window, and the current rate of change in oil crude oil prices is far more than the red line, unless the next four working days. The spot price of crude oil rose by 8 US dollars, the price adjustment may be stranded, but from the current crude oil trend point of view, the "nine consecutive falls" is a foregone conclusion, but the reduction per ton or reduced to 150 to 180 yuan.

Since late June of this year, due to the growth of global supply, the slowdown of the economic growth in the euro zone and China, the international oil price “bear market” has persisted and has continued to fall by nearly one-third. While the U.S. economy continues to improve, China’s interest rate cuts stimulate the economy, and OPEC may support the cuts, international crude oil prices began to rebound sharply on the 20th. As of the close of the 21st, the New York Mercantile Exchange’s light delivery in January 2015 Crude oil futures rose 0.66 US dollars to close at 76.51 US dollars a barrel, an increase of 0.87%. The London Brent crude oil futures price for delivery in January 2015 increased by 1.03 US dollars to close at 80.36 US dollars a barrel, or 1.3%.

Driven by this, the rate of change in crude oil also rebounded. As of the 6th working day of the 42nd round (November 24th), Zhongyu crude oil was valued at US$76.616/barrel, which was US$4.653/barrel lower than the benchmark price, and Zhongyu News monitored the rate of change in crude oil at -5.73%. At 0:00 on November 29 (at 24:00 on the 28th), the retail price of refined oil was reduced by approximately RMB 230/t.

"According to the current crude oil price calculation, unless the spot price of crude oil has risen by 8 US dollars since the next day and continues to run until the end of the pricing cycle, the current round of price adjustment will have a chance of being stranded. According to the current trend of crude oil, the central bank cuts interest rates to a certain extent to boost energy. Demand, but whether the issue of OPEC production cuts or will continue to restrict crude oil prices before Thursday, domestic oil prices 'nine consecutive losses' is a foregone conclusion.” Sun Xiaofei, an analyst at Zhongyu, predicts. Zhuo Chuang, an information analyst, also believes that from the current rate of change forecast, this round of decline may be reduced to 150 yuan to 180 yuan per ton.